Differential pressure

• p(pearl) = 40%
• p(blue|pearl) = 30%
• p(blue|~pearl) = 10%
• p(pearl|blue) = ?

Differential pressure between the two conditional probabilities,  p(blue|pearl) and p(blue|~pearl) 의 개념

it's easier to see why the final answer depends on all three probabilities; it's the differential pressure between the two conditional probabilities,  p(blue|pearl) and p(blue|~pearl), that slides the prior probability p(pearl) to the posterior probability p(pearl|blue).

...

you can see that when the conditional probabilities are equal, there's no differential pressure - the arrows are the same size - so the prior probability doesn't slide between the top bar and the bottom bar.

In the frequency visualization, ... The bottom bar is shorter than the top bar, just as the number of eggs painted blue is less than the total number of eggs.

The gif file created from the applet at http://yudkowsky.net/rational/bayes

Curvature Scale Space

Smooth operator 결과. sigma 를 높임에 따라 뭉게진다.
cyan은 원 sine curve + 15% noise

2차원 커브에 적용. 빨간 점은 커브가 zero-crossing되는 지점.

재밌다 ㅋㅋ

Thanks to Roy

Odds and relative likelihood

The odds in favor of an event or a proposition are expressed as the ratio of a pair of integers, which is the ratio of the probability that an event will happen to the probability that it will not happen.

For example, the odds that a randomly chosen day of the week is a Sunday are one to six, which is sometimes written 1:6, or 1/6.
요건 반대..
The odds against Sunday are 6:1 or 6/1 = 6: it is 6 times as likely that a random day is not a Sunday.

Relative likelihood

That value may be regarded as the relative likelihood the event will happen, expressed as a fraction (if it is less than 1), or a multiple (if it is equal to or greater than one) of the likelihood that the event will not happen.

일어나지 않을 확률 분의 일어날 확률. 상대적인 likelihood

Log-linear Models and Conditional Random Fields

Koosy에게 받은 링크. 차근차근 봐바야겠다.

http://videolectures.net/cikm08_elkan_llmacrf/